By Stephen Buckley
NAIROBI, Kenya -- Markets are flourishing across Somalia, local governing councils have sprouted, and refugees are returning home to find solid supplies of food.
But many Somalis cannot afford the food when it goes on sale in the markets. The refugees are returning to villages and towns razed in four years of civil war. Local administrations face the constant threat of power-hungry warlords, who operate without a national government to rein them in. And one poor harvest could catapult the country toward a food crisis of the kind that has vexed Somalia for decades.
As 6 million people battle to rebuild their country more than seven months after a United Nations force pulled out, Somalia is better off in many respects, according to reports here from relief workers and diplomats. But it remains as politically unstable and as economically fragile as it was when foreign troops left -- their campaign to restore order and alleviate famine having broken down into periodic skirmishing with Somalia's clan-based militias.
"The problem is that an area may be relatively secure and stable today but that may not be the case tomorrow," one U.N. official said.
Clan conflicts, which killed tens of thousands at the height of the civil war, have ebbed, according to these officials. But the battles for power among the country's principal militia leader, Mohamed Farah Aideed, and his chief rivals, Ali Mahdi Mohamed and Osman Ato, threaten to keep Somalia mired in political chaos for the long term, they say.
Aideed, a former Somali army general who played the leading role in overthrowing President Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 and has sought to solidify his leadership ever since, proclaimed himself president last June, promulgating a constitution and forming a cabinet. But no country has recognized his government, and much of Somalia also rejects his claim to power.
Ali Mahdi, who also declared himself president after Siad Barre's fall, and Ato, Aideed's longtime financial backer, have promoted talks aimed at forging a national government but have excluded Aideed.
The political conflict tears into every aspect of Somalia's life, as evidenced last month when Aideed took over the economically critical town of Baidoa, a focal point of the country's catastrophic famine in 1992.
To many observers who follow the country's affairs, Baidoa represented Somalia's effort to scratch back to normalcy. Its market offered a range of foods and clothing, even simple appliances and electronic goods. It is one of the few areas in the country where several clans lived together in relative peace. As the country's agricultural center, it serves an area that grows 80 percent of Somalia's sorghum, a staple food.
After Aideed invaded the town, thousands of families fled. Aid agencies, which had an estimated $ 300,000 in equipment allegedly looted by Aideed's militia, also left. And, perhaps most important, trucks have had difficulty getting out of Baidoa to take food to other parts of Somalia.
Aideed's action was alarming in part because "it represents a step back to the days in 1992 and 1993 when clans took over areas where they historically had not been present," a Western diplomat said.
The takeover of Baidoa could endanger food supplies throughout Somalia. Food shortages have once again become a concern in that hot, dry country, because this year's sorghum harvest was 71,000 metric tons, down from 193,000 metric tons last year.
But Michele Quintaglie, a spokeswoman for the World Food Program, said her agency's primary worry is that "a lot of people just don't have the money to buy food. . . . You need an environment that allows people to find jobs. To be honest, those are the problems a government is supposed to solve."
Mogadishu, the capital and most populous city with more than a half-million inhabitants, has suffered rampant unemployment since U.N. forces departed. The U.N. mission employed from 4,500 to 10,000 Somalis, whose salaries often supported more than one family.
Ali Mahdi has exacerbated Mogadishu's woes by shutting its port, an effort to punish Aideed for his attempts to tax banana exports. This has caused the prices of some staple foods to jump by 100 percent.
But many parts of Somalia have escaped such upheavals and appear to be recovering from war, according to the reports in Nairobi.
In Boosaaso, a northeastern port city, entrepreneurs do a thriving trade with Yemen, across the Gulf of Aden. Boosaaso's market offerings run from gold to guns.
In Kismaayo, in the southwest, a 50-man police force protects the city from marauding militias. Other towns operate community schools and health clinics, supplied by foreign aid groups.
Around the country, a number of indigenous relief groups have blossomed; the World Food Program, for example, distributes most of its food through such agencies.
Such successes could eventually pose a nettlesome question if Somalia moves toward forming a national government. If towns and villages can organize politically and economically, they will have less incentive to join Somalia's nation-building efforts.